No usable holding-specific earnings book passed current source-time, spread and depth checks. Hilton and Amazon contracts were found but their odds are excluded as stale/thin or wide; detailed exact-rule evidence is retained in the audit.
Additional index and earnings coverage audit
{
"asOf": "2026-10-23",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:38:17.593Z",
"actualIndexMarkets": [
{
"id": "6040660",
"eventId": "1234924",
"question": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?",
"instrument": "S&P 500; exact underlying requires rule review",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-23-2026",
"rules": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, October 23, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, October 23, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea \nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"deadline": "2026-10-23T20:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:36:04.983151Z",
"volume24hr": 3921.6641329999998,
"outcomes": "[\"Up\", \"Down\"]",
"tokens": "[\"23925735532089424798029670825406317456309664516098908003386075530492529750920\", \"103534574765175188778282042746819140245291619795205402671892539448998138752229\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"token": "23925735532089424798029670825406317456309664516098908003386075530492529750920",
"bid": 0.48,
"ask": 0.49,
"spread": 0.010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.485,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 510.14,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 500,
"askDepth": 10.14,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:19.987Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.162Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 2.175,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"token": "103534574765175188778282042746819140245291619795205402671892539448998138752229",
"bid": 0.51,
"ask": 0.52,
"spread": 0.010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.515,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 510.14,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 10.14,
"askDepth": 500,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:19.987Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.171Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 2.184,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 2.175,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 2.184,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.162Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract/outcome baseline; another SPX date is a different horizon, not a comparison."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "23 October 2026 regular-session S&P500 (SPX) official close versus 22 October official close, using exact WSJ Close settlement rules; equal prices resolve50/50.",
"assessment": "Neutral/weak context: Up48/49c, midpoint48.5% estimate near50%, modest 24h volume3921.66 and displayed best-level depth510.14shares. No risk-on/risk-off inference from this near-even book. No prior matching23October observation."
},
{
"id": "6040674",
"eventId": "1234935",
"question": "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 23?",
"instrument": "S&P 500; exact underlying requires rule review",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-october-23-2026",
"rules": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 23 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 23 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea\nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"deadline": "2026-10-23T20:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:36:04.983151Z",
"volume24hr": 1091.943882,
"outcomes": "[\"Up\", \"Down\"]",
"tokens": "[\"57893367194090197469473987493288524610039205160556298302802686331332801915540\", \"76771373611244546166516441687086296732976238893453286593979516868253683262629\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"token": "57893367194090197469473987493288524610039205160556298302802686331332801915540",
"bid": 0.45,
"ask": 0.52,
"spread": 0.07,
"midpoint": 0.485,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 122.89,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 22.89,
"askDepth": 100,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.546Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.178Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": -0.368,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"token": "76771373611244546166516441687086296732976238893453286593979516868253683262629",
"bid": 0.48,
"ask": 0.55,
"spread": 0.07000000000000006,
"midpoint": 0.515,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 122.89,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 100,
"askDepth": 22.89,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.546Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.197Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": -0.349,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"status": "unusable_wide_spread",
"sourceAgeSeconds": -0.368,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"status": "unusable_wide_spread",
"sourceAgeSeconds": -0.349,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.178Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract/outcome baseline; another SPX date is a different horizon, not a comparison."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "23 October 2026 SPX official opening versus22October close; not closing direction.",
"assessment": "Unusable for a directional regime: Up45/52c has a7cent spread and thin122.89shares best-level depth. Opening and closing horizons are not interchangeable."
}
],
"earningsReview": [
{
"id": "5778641",
"eventId": "1200496",
"question": "Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/hlt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2026-2pt38",
"rules": "As of market creation, Hilton is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Hilton’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.38 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hilton reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.38 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.\n\nIf Hilton releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation.\nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
"resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HLT/earnings",
"deadline": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:32:05.037606Z",
"volume24hr": 420.24,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"68893441493629624664105967887254971456104302651802613938563512494282680466032\", \"79623823661332487196656230783356893453986063498696217991208539948308788850802\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "68893441493629624664105967887254971456104302651802613938563512494282680466032",
"bid": 0.8,
"ask": 0.83,
"spread": 0.029999999999999916,
"midpoint": 0.815,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 157,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 135,
"askDepth": 22,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T04:14:47.911Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.202Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 4954.291,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "79623823661332487196656230783356893453986063498696217991208539948308788850802",
"bid": 0.17,
"ask": 0.2,
"spread": 0.03,
"midpoint": 0.185,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 157,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 22,
"askDepth": 135,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T04:14:47.911Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.208Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 4954.297,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "unusable_stale_source_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 4954.291,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "unusable_stale_source_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 4954.297,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.202Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:49.000Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:43:40.733Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.84,
"currentMidpoint": 0.815,
"changePercentagePoints": -2.500000000000002,
"qualityNote": "Arithmetic only: current source quote is stale and thin; no credible probability trend inferred."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Hilton next Q3 2026 release: primary headline non-GAAP EPS strictly above USD2.38 fixed at market creation, with exact96-hour fallback rules retained. This is not current survey consensus.",
"assessment": "Excluded from reader odds: Yes80/83c midpoint81.5% is only raw audit arithmetic. Source04:14:47.911UTC was about82minutes old at05:37:22UTC; thin157shares and reported24hvolume420.24 make context unusable. Do not imply a fresh probability, stock-rise odds or trend.",
"issuerEvidence": {
"quarter": "Q3 2026",
"date": "2026-10-27",
"resultsReleaseTime": null,
"releaseQualification": "Before stock-market open; exact clock unspecified.",
"callTime": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z",
"sourceUrl": "https://ir.hilton.com/news-events/investor-news/detail/415/hilton-announces-third-quarter-2026-earnings-release-date",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:38:17.593Z",
"expectations": "Market-creation non-GAAP threshold2.38 is not an independently checked current survey consensus."
}
},
{
"id": "5778679",
"eventId": "1200533",
"question": "Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/amzn-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2026-2pt00",
"rules": "As of market creation, Amazon is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Amazon's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Amazon reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.\n\nIf Amazon releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.\nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
"resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN/earnings",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T21:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:36:04.983151Z",
"volume24hr": 421.42786,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"90815166878920798776466179911934241897500554446075741228714372209770620128600\", \"106281174234308611722460628929984333764273244622647093867075938152513028378336\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "90815166878920798776466179911934241897500554446075741228714372209770620128600",
"bid": 0.57,
"ask": 0.67,
"spread": 0.10000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.62,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 151.9,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 50,
"askDepth": 101.9,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:27:26.646Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.198Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 595.552,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "106281174234308611722460628929984333764273244622647093867075938152513028378336",
"bid": 0.33,
"ask": 0.43,
"spread": 0.09999999999999998,
"midpoint": 0.38,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 151.9,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 101.9,
"askDepth": 50,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:27:26.646Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.204Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 595.558,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "unusable_stale_source_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 595.552,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "unusable_stale_source_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 595.558,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.198Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract/outcome baseline; another SPX date is a different horizon, not a comparison."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Amazon next Q3 2026 release: GAAP EPS strictly above USD2.00 fixed at market creation. Diluted GAAP, or basic if diluted unavailable; exact96-hour SeekingAlpha fallback and initial-release rule retained.",
"assessment": "Excluded from reader odds: Yes57/67c midpoint62% is raw audit arithmetic only. Ten-cent spread,151.9shares best-level depth and source quote about10minutes old make the context unusable. No current earnings-beat probability adopted and no stock-rise/trade-win inference.",
"issuerEvidence": {
"quarter": "Q3 2026",
"date": "2026-10-29",
"resultsReleaseTime": null,
"releaseQualification": "Exact release clock not supplied by checked issuer call advisory.",
"callTime": "2026-10-29T21:00:00Z",
"sourceUrl": "https://press.aboutamazon.com/2026/10/amazon-com-to-webcast-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-conference-call",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:38:17.593Z",
"expectations": "Market-creation GAAP2.00 threshold is not a current independently documented survey consensus."
}
}
],
"fedReview": [
{
"id": "2589810",
"eventId": "606422",
"question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:32:05.037606Z",
"volume24hr": 212455.8,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"17010377994663817312158123655937348199252960045746746128731746451645055725586\", \"61725366781282351729996972759460154434089275036953062948669003249092837754960\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "17010377994663817312158123655937348199252960045746746128731746451645055725586",
"bid": null,
"ask": 0.001,
"spread": null,
"midpoint": null,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 1432943.56,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 0,
"askDepth": 1432943.56,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:21.093Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.179Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 1.086,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "61725366781282351729996972759460154434089275036953062948669003249092837754960",
"bid": 0.999,
"ask": null,
"spread": null,
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"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 1432943.56,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 1432943.56,
"askDepth": 0,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:21.093Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.177Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 1.084,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "unusable_missing_bid_or_ask",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 1.086,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "unusable_missing_bid_or_ask",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 1.084,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.179Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract/outcome baseline; another SPX date is a different horizon, not a comparison."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Change in upper bound of federal funds target range after October27–28 FOMC compared with pre-meeting level, with exact rounding and fallback rules retained.",
"assessment": "Individual dated FOMC outcome only. No-change Yes93/94c midpoint93.5% is +6.0percentage points versus matching22October87.5% observation; +25bp Yes5/6c midpoint5.5% is -7.0points versus matching22October12.5%. Outcomes are not added. A50+bp cut lacks a bid, so midpoint unavailable. Policy context is not today’s equity closing direction or a trade-success probability."
},
{
"id": "2589811",
"eventId": "606422",
"question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:32:05.037606Z",
"volume24hr": 304336.54950200004,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"33268510350568915228897273528353467773422190590579607471427765079749830445947\", \"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "33268510350568915228897273528353467773422190590579607471427765079749830445947",
"bid": 0.002,
"ask": 0.003,
"spread": 0.001,
"midpoint": 0.0025,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 2422247.62,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 1800209.79,
"askDepth": 622037.83,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:36:58.468Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.203Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.735,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552",
"bid": 0.997,
"ask": 0.998,
"spread": 0.0010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.9975,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 2422247.62,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 622037.83,
"askDepth": 1800209.79,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:36:58.468Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.180Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.712,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.735,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.712,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.203Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.757Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.551Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.0025,
"currentMidpoint": 0.0025,
"changePercentagePoints": 0,
"qualityNote": "Stored matching contract and outcome. No probability calibration, sum of markets or trade-success improvement claimed."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Change in upper bound of federal funds target range after October27–28 FOMC compared with pre-meeting level, with exact rounding and fallback rules retained.",
"assessment": "Individual dated FOMC outcome only. No-change Yes93/94c midpoint93.5% is +6.0percentage points versus matching22October87.5% observation; +25bp Yes5/6c midpoint5.5% is -7.0points versus matching22October12.5%. Outcomes are not added. A50+bp cut lacks a bid, so midpoint unavailable. Policy context is not today’s equity closing direction or a trade-success probability."
},
{
"id": "2589812",
"eventId": "606422",
"question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:36:04.983151Z",
"volume24hr": 1317989.207369,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748\", \"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748",
"bid": 0.93,
"ask": 0.94,
"spread": 0.009999999999999898,
"midpoint": 0.935,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 284715.01,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 179555.52,
"askDepth": 105159.49,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:05.336Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.206Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 16.87,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415",
"bid": 0.06,
"ask": 0.07,
"spread": 0.010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.065,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 284715.01,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 105159.49,
"askDepth": 179555.52,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:05.336Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.182Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 16.846,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 16.87,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 16.846,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.206Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.835Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.551Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.875,
"currentMidpoint": 0.935,
"changePercentagePoints": 6.000000000000005,
"qualityNote": "Stored matching contract and outcome. No probability calibration, sum of markets or trade-success improvement claimed."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Change in upper bound of federal funds target range after October27–28 FOMC compared with pre-meeting level, with exact rounding and fallback rules retained.",
"assessment": "Individual dated FOMC outcome only. No-change Yes93/94c midpoint93.5% is +6.0percentage points versus matching22October87.5% observation; +25bp Yes5/6c midpoint5.5% is -7.0points versus matching22October12.5%. Outcomes are not added. A50+bp cut lacks a bid, so midpoint unavailable. Policy context is not today’s equity closing direction or a trade-success probability."
},
{
"id": "2589813",
"eventId": "606422",
"question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:34:05.092106Z",
"volume24hr": 621609.9247479999,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050\", \"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050",
"bid": 0.05,
"ask": 0.06,
"spread": 0.009999999999999995,
"midpoint": 0.055,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 215144.7,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 83073.76,
"askDepth": 132070.94,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:09.092Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.169Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 13.077,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757",
"bid": 0.94,
"ask": 0.95,
"spread": 0.010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.945,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 215144.7,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 132070.94,
"askDepth": 83073.76,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:37:09.092Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.187Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 13.095,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 13.077,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 13.095,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.169Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.905Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.551Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.125,
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"changePercentagePoints": -7.000000000000001,
"qualityNote": "Stored matching contract and outcome. No probability calibration, sum of markets or trade-success improvement claimed."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Change in upper bound of federal funds target range after October27–28 FOMC compared with pre-meeting level, with exact rounding and fallback rules retained.",
"assessment": "Individual dated FOMC outcome only. No-change Yes93/94c midpoint93.5% is +6.0percentage points versus matching22October87.5% observation; +25bp Yes5/6c midpoint5.5% is -7.0points versus matching22October12.5%. Outcomes are not added. A50+bp cut lacks a bid, so midpoint unavailable. Policy context is not today’s equity closing direction or a trade-success probability."
},
{
"id": "2589814",
"eventId": "606422",
"question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-23T05:34:05.092106Z",
"volume24hr": 628786.3253029998,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498\", \"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498",
"bid": 0.003,
"ask": 0.004,
"spread": 0.001,
"midpoint": 0.0035,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 705638.45,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 320122.62,
"askDepth": 385515.83,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:36:58.484Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.175Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.691,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839",
"bid": 0.996,
"ask": 0.997,
"spread": 0.0010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.9964999999999999,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 705638.45,
"depthMeaning": "Sum of displayed sizes at the best bid and best ask, in outcome shares; not USD notional or total order-book depth",
"bidDepth": 385515.83,
"askDepth": 320122.62,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-23T05:36:58.484Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.196Z",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.712,
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"mappingChecked": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.691,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 23.712,
"limitation": "A single public order book is not guaranteed execution, a calibrated forecast, or a stock trade-win probability. Displayed depth is shares, not dollars."
}
],
"stateReview": {
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"checkedAt": "2026-10-23T05:37:22.175Z",
"status": "active_unresolved_trading",
"eventOccurred": false,
"eventCheck": "/No touch-before-deadline contract used. SPX23 opening/closing and October27–28 FOMC/issuer future release horizons had not occurred at this pre-open check."
},
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.979Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.510Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.0035,
"currentMidpoint": 0.0035,
"changePercentagePoints": 0,
"qualityNote": "Stored matching contract and outcome. No probability calibration, sum of markets or trade-success improvement claimed."
},
"readerRelevant": false,
"horizon": "Change in upper bound of federal funds target range after October27–28 FOMC compared with pre-meeting level, with exact rounding and fallback rules retained.",
"assessment": "Individual dated FOMC outcome only. No-change Yes93/94c midpoint93.5% is +6.0percentage points versus matching22October87.5% observation; +25bp Yes5/6c midpoint5.5% is -7.0points versus matching22October12.5%. Outcomes are not added. A50+bp cut lacks a bid, so midpoint unavailable. Policy context is not today’s equity closing direction or a trade-success probability."
}
],
"nasdaq100": "No suitable exact Nasdaq-100 market established in30bounded public searches; Nasdaq Composite, QQQ and SPY were not substituted.",
"sourcesChecked": [
{
"query": "S&P 500 SPX October 23 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=S%26P%20500%20SPX%20October%2023%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "SPX opens October 23 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=SPX%20opens%20October%2023%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nasdaq-100 October 23 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nasdaq-100%20October%2023%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nasdaq 100 NDX direction October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nasdaq%20100%20NDX%20direction%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Federal Reserve October 28 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Federal%20Reserve%20October%2028%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Fed October28 2026 interest rate decision",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Fed%20October28%202026%20interest%20rate%20decision",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Amazon earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Amazon%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Duke Energy earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Duke%20Energy%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Accenture earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Accenture%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Hilton earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Hilton%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "American Tower earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=American%20Tower%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Bloom Energy BE earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Bloom%20Energy%20BE%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nebius earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nebius%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Mastercard earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Mastercard%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Regeneron earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Regeneron%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Honeywell earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Honeywell%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "HCA earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=HCA%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "PNC earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=PNC%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Alphabet Google earnings October2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Alphabet%20Google%20earnings%20October2026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "ADP earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=ADP%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Freeport McMoRan earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Freeport%20McMoRan%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "US PMI October 23 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=US%20PMI%20October%2023%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Will Amazon AMZN beat quarterly earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Will%20Amazon%20AMZN%20beat%20quarterly%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Will Duke Energy DUK beat quarterly earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Will%20Duke%20Energy%20DUK%20beat%20quarterly%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Will American Tower AMT beat quarterly earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Will%20American%20Tower%20AMT%20beat%20quarterly%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Will Accenture ACN beat quarterly earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Will%20Accenture%20ACN%20beat%20quarterly%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Kinder Morgan KMI earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Kinder%20Morgan%20KMI%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Procter Gamble PG earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Procter%20Gamble%20PG%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Keurig Dr Pepper KDP earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Keurig%20Dr%20Pepper%20KDP%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "United Rentals URI earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=United%20Rentals%20URI%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Micron MU earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Micron%20MU%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "SoundHound SOUN earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=SoundHound%20SOUN%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Xcel Energy XEL earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Xcel%20Energy%20XEL%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Alpha and Omega Semiconductor AOSL earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Alpha%20and%20Omega%20Semiconductor%20AOSL%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Fluence Energy FLNC earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Fluence%20Energy%20FLNC%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Apple AAPL earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Apple%20AAPL%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
}
],
"regimeContext": "Neutral/unavailable from prediction evidence: actual SPX23close book is near50%; opening book is wide/thin. No exact Nasdaq100 signal. A credible matched Fed no-change-price rise reduces market-implied hike pricing over the FOMC horizon but does not itself establish risk-on or cause index/stock moves. Audited price, breadth, sector and volatility evidence remain independent.",
"decisionImpact": "Awaiting Sam final current portfolio review; no technical trigger, score, units or allocation presumed.",
"heldEarningsCoverage": {
"symbols": [
"HLT.US",
"AMZN.US",
"DUK.US",
"ACN.US",
"AMT.US"
],
"found": [
"HLT.US",
"AMZN.US"
],
"unusable": [
"HLT.US",
"AMZN.US"
],
"noSuitableMarket": [
"DUK.US",
"ACN.US",
"AMT.US"
],
"note": "Bounded first-page searches, including exact ticker questions, are not exhaustive. Hilton Grand Vacations HGV is a different company and excluded. No missing coverage interpreted as zero probability."
},
"featuredEarningsCoverage": {
"symbols": [
"MU.US",
"SOUN.US",
"XEL.US",
"AOSL.US",
"FLNC.US"
],
"status": "No suitable exact unresolved earnings market established in the bounded36-query final discovery. Name collisions/expired contracts excluded; not exhaustive."
},
"alexHandoff": {
"sourceFile": "work/polymarket-2026-10-23.json",
"priceCutoff": "2026-10-22T20:00:00Z",
"technicalIndependence": "Current maximum-weekly/daily/4H/1H/15m technical reviews retain independent triggers, competing counts and risk checks. Prediction odds cannot supply missing pivots, qualification, or confidence scores."
},
"formerHoldingCoverage": {
"symbol": "AMZN.US",
"status": "Closed by recorded22October model stop; its wide/stale earnings market is retained for audit only, not currentholding probability or allocation."
},
"currentHoldingSymbols": [
"DUK.US",
"ACN.US",
"HLT.US",
"AMT.US"
]
}