One held-company earnings contract is relevant. Its bid/ask estimate is weak context, not the probability of a stock rise or trade success.
Additional index and earnings coverage audit
{
"asOf": "2026-10-22",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:46:25.292Z",
"actualIndexMarkets": [
{
"id": "6009103",
"question": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?",
"instrument": "S&P 500, underlying requires rules",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-22-2026",
"rules": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, October 22, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, October 22, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea \nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"deadline": "2026-10-22T20:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-22T05:32:57.119407Z",
"volume24hr": 2242.546405,
"outcomes": "[\"Up\", \"Down\"]",
"tokens": "[\"8590760059342446363834862347868426378441510342859174712653497407810734185182\", \"20518950789406855211341469556463980006348401470763952471952661524544839975869\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"token": "8590760059342446363834862347868426378441510342859174712653497407810734185182",
"bid": 0.13,
"ask": 0.15,
"spread": 0.01999999999999999,
"midpoint": 0.14,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 750.12,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:43:40.745Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:48.830Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"token": "20518950789406855211341469556463980006348401470763952471952661524544839975869",
"bid": 0.85,
"ask": 0.87,
"spread": 0.020000000000000018,
"midpoint": 0.86,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 750.12,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:43:40.745Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:48.877Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"horizon": "22 October regular-session SPX close versus21 October close, actual S&P500 index. Exact settlement rules retained below.",
"assessment": "Close-up 14.0% midpoint estimate, 13/15 cents, 750.12 shares best-level depth, 2242.55 reported24hvolume. Limited-liquidity risk-off directional concern for this exact horizon; not a broad regime or stock-trade probability.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 8.085,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 8.132,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No valid saved matching-contract/outcome baseline. Another SPX trading session cannot supply a comparison."
}
},
{
"id": "6009129",
"question": "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 22?",
"instrument": "S&P 500, underlying requires rules",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-october-22-2026",
"rules": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 22 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 22 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea\nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"deadline": "2026-10-22T20:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-22T05:32:57.119407Z",
"volume24hr": 70,
"outcomes": "[\"Up\", \"Down\"]",
"tokens": "[\"77651080163490355463263548573531310518884030221405383743561406073501235700488\", \"65854112134377915792241460034593560198351063145562213039926774524127413272450\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
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"outcome": "Up",
"token": "77651080163490355463263548573531310518884030221405383743561406073501235700488",
"bid": 0.04,
"ask": 0.09,
"spread": 0.049999999999999996,
"midpoint": 0.065,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 126.77,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:33:51.396Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:48.917Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"token": "65854112134377915792241460034593560198351063145562213039926774524127413272450",
"bid": 0.91,
"ask": 0.96,
"spread": 0.04999999999999993,
"midpoint": 0.935,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 126.77,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:33:51.396Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:48.965Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"horizon": "22 October SPX opening versus21 October close, not closing direction.",
"assessment": "Opening contract is a different horizon; low70reported24hvolume,5cent spread and source quote about10minutes old make it weak/unusable. No opening probability adopted as a closing forecast.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
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"outcome": "Up",
"status": "weak_stale_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 597.521,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"status": "weak_stale_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 597.569,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
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],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No valid saved matching-contract/outcome baseline. Another SPX trading session cannot supply a comparison."
}
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],
"earningsReview": [
{
"id": "5778641",
"question": "Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/hlt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2026-2pt38",
"rules": "As of market creation, Hilton is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Hilton’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.38 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hilton reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.38 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.\n\nIf Hilton releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation.\nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
"resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HLT/earnings",
"deadline": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-22T05:32:57.119407Z",
"volume24hr": 640.6273869999999,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"68893441493629624664105967887254971456104302651802613938563512494282680466032\", \"79623823661332487196656230783356893453986063498696217991208539948308788850802\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
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"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "68893441493629624664105967887254971456104302651802613938563512494282680466032",
"bid": 0.82,
"ask": 0.86,
"spread": 0.040000000000000036,
"midpoint": 0.84,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 543.37,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:43:40.733Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:49.000Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "79623823661332487196656230783356893453986063498696217991208539948308788850802",
"bid": 0.14,
"ask": 0.18,
"spread": 0.03999999999999998,
"midpoint": 0.16,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 543.37,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:43:40.733Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:43:49.047Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"horizon": "Hilton next Q3 2026 earnings: primary headline non-GAAP EPS strictly above USD2.38; market-creation threshold, not a fresh consensus. Fallback GAAP/source rules retained verbatim.",
"assessment": "Held-company earnings context only:4cent spread,543.37 best-level depth and640.63reported24hvolume are modest participation. A beat may coexist with price falls or weak guidance.",
"readerRelevant": true,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 8.267,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 8.314,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
}
],
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-21T05:45:18.509Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-21T05:42:09.994Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.795,
"currentMidpoint": 0.84,
"changePercentagePoints": 4.499999999999993,
"limitation": "Matching contract/outcome only. Prior Hilton participation was99.38reported24hvolume: numerical change is not a reliable probability trend."
}
}
],
"fedReview": [
{
"id": "2589810",
"question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-22T05:36:56.550395Z",
"volume24hr": 47198.91,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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{
"price": "0.992",
"size": "11500"
},
{
"price": "0.993",
"size": "30.1"
},
{
"price": "0.994",
"size": "100447.1"
},
{
"price": "0.995",
"size": "105214.88"
},
{
"price": "0.996",
"size": "489117.38"
}
],
"asks": [
{
"price": "0.999",
"size": "328412.06"
},
{
"price": "0.998",
"size": "2250776.47"
},
{
"price": "0.997",
"size": "828141.95"
}
],
"min_order_size": "5",
"tick_size": "0.001",
"neg_risk": true,
"last_trade_price": "0.003"
}
}
],
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498",
"bid": 0.003,
"ask": 0.004,
"spread": 0.001,
"midpoint": 0.0035,
"depth": 1317259.33,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.510Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.979Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839",
"bid": 0.996,
"ask": 0.997,
"spread": 0.0010000000000000009,
"midpoint": 0.9964999999999999,
"depth": 1317259.33,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-22T05:44:10.510Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-22T05:44:11.021Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
}
],
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-21T05:50:02.199Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-21T05:49:56.917Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.0035,
"currentMidpoint": 0.0035,
"changePercentagePoints": 0,
"limitation": "Matching contract/outcome only. Prior Hilton participation was99.38reported24hvolume: numerical change is not a reliable probability trend."
},
"assessment": "Exact October27–28FOMC target upper-bound change contract; not today’s index direction or a stock trade success probability. Individual outcomes are not added together. No allocation or regime effect assumed.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 0.469,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 0.511,
"limitation": "Single timestamped book; no guaranteed execution, calibrated forecast or trade-win probability."
}
]
}
],
"nasdaq100": "No suitable exact Nasdaq-100 market established in bounded public search; Nasdaq Composite,QQQ andSPY were not substituted.",
"sourcesChecked": [
{
"query": "S&P 500 SPX October 22 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=S%26P%20500%20SPX%20October%2022%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nasdaq-100 October 22 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nasdaq-100%20October%2022%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Federal Reserve October 28 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Federal%20Reserve%20October%2028%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "US initial claims October 22 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=US%20initial%20claims%20October%2022%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nokia earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nokia%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Automatic Data Processing earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Automatic%20Data%20Processing%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Freeport McMoRan earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Freeport%20McMoRan%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Medtronic earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Medtronic%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "3M earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=3M%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Gilead earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Gilead%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Amazon earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Amazon%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Duke Energy earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Duke%20Energy%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Accenture earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Accenture%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Hilton earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Hilton%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "American Tower earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=American%20Tower%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "PNC earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=PNC%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Alphabet Google earnings October2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Alphabet%20Google%20earnings%20October2026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Amgen earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Amgen%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Mastercard earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Mastercard%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Regeneron earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Regeneron%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Fed October28 2026 interest rate decision",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Fed%20October28%202026%20interest%20rate%20decision",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Fed decrease interest rates October2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Fed%20decrease%20interest%20rates%20October2026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "US initial jobless claims October22 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=US%20initial%20jobless%20claims%20October22%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
}
],
"regimeContext": "SPX close-up14%midpoint leans risk-off over22October only, with modestvolume; the opening book is weak/stale, and no exactNasdaq100coverage was established. Actual index/sector evidence remains independent; odds alone do not calculate a broad regime.",
"decisionImpact": "No entry, exit, stop, target or sizing decision changes. SPX close-up 14% is weak, modest-liquidity concern for the exact 22 October close-versus-21 October horizon. It conflicts with the prior-session rebound and supports caution as secondary context, but cannot establish a broad risk-off regime or override qualified company relative strength. Current technical geometry/execution/comparability reasons independently explain no new entry. The thin/stale opening contract is unusable and has a different horizon. HLT 84% midpoint estimates non-GAAP EPS above the fixed creation-time $2.38 threshold, not stock upside or trade success; the four-cent spread/modest volume and weak prior baseline prevent a credible improving-odds trend. Keep the already recorded protective stop and earnings-gap caution. Fed no-change 87.5% is weak contextual policy pricing, not a certain outcome or demonstrated causal explanation of DUK/AMT prices. Do not add outcome probabilities or substitute SPX/QQQ/Nasdaq Composite for an unavailable exact Nasdaq-100 contract.",
"featuredEarningsCoverage": {
"symbols": [
"PNC.US",
"ADP.US",
"FCX.US",
"GOOG.US",
"GOOGL.US"
],
"status": "No suitable exact unresolved featured-issuer earnings contract established in bounded searches. Results are not exhaustive; unrelated issuer/name collisions excluded."
},
"alexHandoff": {
"sourceFile": "work/polymarket-2026-10-22.json",
"priceCutoff": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z",
"technicalIndependence": "Nine required completed-bar reviews keep independent triggers/alternatives; limited LITE source receives no technical call. Odds do not supply missing pivots, indicators, qualification or numerical confidence."
},
"samReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T05:47:25.582Z"
}