Exact SPX session contracts are near-even and thin, and the held-company Hilton earnings book is stale and wide. These are weak/unusable context; no reader probability or automatic regime/selection change is inferred.
Additional index and earnings coverage audit
{
"asOf": "2026-10-20",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:44:00.131Z",
"actualIndexMarkets": [
{
"id": "5920635",
"question": "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?",
"instrument": "S&P 500, underlying requires rules",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-20-2026",
"rules": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea \nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"deadline": "2026-10-20T20:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:34:47.822876Z",
"volume24hr": 16191.291555,
"outcomes": "[\"Up\", \"Down\"]",
"tokens": "[\"65910031205497258743984808565459409789230065676431430659652385723065905489576\", \"28952404167253536324200497908760483157761738732336896549813202932011935918460\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"token": "65910031205497258743984808565459409789230065676431430659652385723065905489576",
"bid": 0.51,
"ask": 0.53,
"spread": 0.020000000000000018,
"midpoint": 0.52,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 100,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.125Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.036Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"token": "28952404167253536324200497908760483157761738732336896549813202932011935918460",
"bid": 0.47,
"ask": 0.49,
"spread": 0.020000000000000018,
"midpoint": 0.48,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 100,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.125Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.084Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No prior saved matching-contract/outcome observation; yesterday’s different SPX session is not a baseline."
},
"horizon": "20 October regular-session SPX close versus19 October close; equal rounds resolve50/50.",
"assessment": "Near-even52%midpoint,2-cent spread and100-share best-level depth are weak directional context. This alone establishes neither risk-on nor risk-off.",
"readerRelevant": false
},
{
"id": "5920650",
"question": "S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 20?",
"instrument": "S&P 500, underlying requires rules",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-october-20-2026",
"rules": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 20 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 20 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea\nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"deadline": "2026-10-20T20:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:34:47.822876Z",
"volume24hr": 3469.464826,
"outcomes": "[\"Up\", \"Down\"]",
"tokens": "[\"36955943784642997371569933954623281908372121561797140503097533857289338689409\", \"55230086287421541008653620729324120609234265963788329900929033175630462094160\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Up",
"token": "36955943784642997371569933954623281908372121561797140503097533857289338689409",
"bid": 0.44,
"ask": 0.48,
"spread": 0.03999999999999998,
"midpoint": 0.45999999999999996,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 30,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:35:32.796Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.112Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "Down",
"token": "55230086287421541008653620729324120609234265963788329900929033175630462094160",
"bid": 0.52,
"ask": 0.56,
"spread": 0.040000000000000036,
"midpoint": 0.54,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 30,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:35:32.796Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.149Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No prior saved matching-contract/outcome observation; yesterday’s different SPX session is not a baseline."
},
"horizon": "20 October SPX opening versus19 October close, not the closing direction.",
"assessment": "46%opening-up midpoint has a different horizon from the52%close-up contract;4-cent spread and30-share depth weaken it further. Do not add the probabilities.",
"readerRelevant": false
}
],
"earningsReview": [
{
"id": "5778641",
"question": "Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?",
"instrument": null,
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/hlt-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2026-2pt38",
"rules": "As of market creation, Hilton is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Hilton’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.38 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hilton reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.38 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.\n\nIf Hilton releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation.\nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
"resolutionSource": "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HLT/earnings",
"deadline": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T04:54:46.155001Z",
"volume24hr": 188,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"68893441493629624664105967887254971456104302651802613938563512494282680466032\", \"79623823661332487196656230783356893453986063498696217991208539948308788850802\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "68893441493629624664105967887254971456104302651802613938563512494282680466032",
"bid": 0.56,
"ask": 0.79,
"spread": 0.22999999999999998,
"midpoint": 0.675,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 120,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T04:53:57.175Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.195Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "79623823661332487196656230783356893453986063498696217991208539948308788850802",
"bid": 0.21,
"ask": 0.44,
"spread": 0.23,
"midpoint": 0.325,
"midpointLabel": "Bid/ask midpoint estimate",
"depth": 120,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T04:53:57.175Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:35:36.243Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false,
"lastTradeDate": "Unavailable; no last-trade probability used"
}
],
"comparison": {
"comparisonCheckedAt": "2026-10-19T05:34:37.464Z",
"priorSourceTime": "2026-10-19T04:45:57.016Z",
"priorMidpoint": 0.575,
"currentMidpoint": 0.675,
"changePercentagePoints": 10.000000000000009,
"limitation": "Matching contract and outcome only; stale/wide/thin observations do not establish a credible probability trend."
},
"horizon": "Hilton Q3 2026 headline non-GAAP EPS strictly above USD2.38; fallback metric rules retained verbatim. Fixed creation threshold is not a fresh survey consensus.",
"assessment": "23-cent spread,120-share best depth and188 reported24-hour volume; source quote is about42minutes older than retrieval. Stale/wide/thin: unusable earnings probability. A beat is not the probability of a stock-price gain.",
"readerRelevant": false
}
],
"nasdaq100": "No suitable exact Nasdaq-100 contract established in the bounded search; Nasdaq Composite, QQQ and SPY were not substituted.",
"sourcesChecked": [
{
"query": "S&P 500 SPX October 20",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=S%26P%20500%20SPX%20October%2020",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nasdaq-100 October 20",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nasdaq-100%20October%2020",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Federal Reserve October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Federal%20Reserve%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "US inflation October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=US%20inflation%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Adobe earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Adobe%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Analog Devices earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Analog%20Devices%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Autodesk earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Autodesk%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Amgen earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Amgen%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "DoorDash earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=DoorDash%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Travelers earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Travelers%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Amazon earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Amazon%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Duke Energy earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Duke%20Energy%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Accenture earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Accenture%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Hilton earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Hilton%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "American Tower earnings October 2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=American%20Tower%20earnings%20October%202026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 4,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "NuScale earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=NuScale%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Nokia earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Nokia%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Ross Stores earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Ross%20Stores%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "SoundHound earnings",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=SoundHound%20earnings",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 3,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Intuitive Surgical earnings October2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Intuitive%20Surgical%20earnings%20October2026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 2,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "Fed October28 2026 interest rate decision",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Fed%20October28%202026%20interest%20rate%20decision",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 1,
"hasMore": false,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
},
{
"query": "US housing starts September2026",
"url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=US%20housing%20starts%20September2026",
"http": 200,
"coverage": {
"events": 5,
"hasMore": true,
"bounded": "First public-search page; not exhaustive"
}
}
],
"regimeContext": "Neutral/unavailable from prediction markets alone: near50%, thin books and unmatched open/close horizons. Combine only with independently dated actual index and sector evidence; no scoring bonus or numerical trade-success claim.",
"decisionImpact": "Sam supplemental review at2026-10-20T05:44:05Z preserves original05:42decision. Exact FOMC hold/hike context supplies no near-term easing catalyst for DUK/AMT; conditional tightening risk remains, but no Treasury-yield, funding-cost or stock-outcome inference. No allocation, stop, target, units or scoring change. Audit-only; generic reader probabilities remain absent.",
"fedReview": [
{
"id": "2589810",
"question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:40:46.651288Z",
"volume24hr": 56662.49,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"17010377994663817312158123655937348199252960045746746128731746451645055725586\", \"61725366781282351729996972759460154434089275036953062948669003249092837754960\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "17010377994663817312158123655937348199252960045746746128731746451645055725586",
"bid": null,
"ask": 0.001,
"spread": null,
"midpoint": null,
"depth": 752086.12,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:17.343Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.517Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "61725366781282351729996972759460154434089275036953062948669003249092837754960",
"bid": 0.999,
"ask": null,
"spread": null,
"midpoint": null,
"depth": 752086.12,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:17.343Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.556Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract observation established; no probability change inferred."
},
"assessment": "Exact October27–28FOMC target upper-bound change contract; not today’s index direction or a stock trade success probability. Individual outcomes are not added together. No allocation or regime effect assumed.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "unusable_missing_two_sided_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 7.174,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "unusable_missing_two_sided_quote",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 7.213,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
}
]
},
{
"id": "2589811",
"question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:42:46.421946Z",
"volume24hr": 770524.126662,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
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"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
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"depth": 1805302.94,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:17.383Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.602Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552",
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"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:17.383Z",
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}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract observation established; no probability change inferred."
},
"assessment": "Exact October27–28FOMC target upper-bound change contract; not today’s index direction or a stock trade success probability. Individual outcomes are not added together. No allocation or regime effect assumed.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
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"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
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"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
}
]
},
{
"id": "2589812",
"question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:42:46.421946Z",
"volume24hr": 689882.937953,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748\", \"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748",
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"midpoint": 0.855,
"depth": 424437.22,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.409Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.676Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415",
"bid": 0.14,
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"depth": 424437.22,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.409Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.703Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract observation established; no probability change inferred."
},
"assessment": "Exact October27–28FOMC target upper-bound change contract; not today’s index direction or a stock trade success probability. Individual outcomes are not added together. No allocation or regime effect assumed.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 0.267,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 0.294,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
}
]
},
{
"id": "2589813",
"question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:42:46.421946Z",
"volume24hr": 731842.7587519999,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050\", \"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050",
"bid": 0.14,
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"midpoint": 0.14500000000000002,
"depth": 263559.62,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:23.244Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.740Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757",
"bid": 0.85,
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"depth": 263559.62,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:23.244Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.782Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract observation established; no probability change inferred."
},
"assessment": "Exact October27–28FOMC target upper-bound change contract; not today’s index direction or a stock trade success probability. Individual outcomes are not added together. No allocation or regime effect assumed.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 1.496,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 1.538,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
}
]
},
{
"id": "2589814",
"question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
"sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"deadline": "2026-10-29T03:59:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"updatedAt": "2026-10-20T05:40:46.651288Z",
"volume24hr": 490452.15933,
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"tokens": "[\"18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498\", \"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839\"]",
"reviewStatus": "requires_instrument_metric_horizon_and_book_audit",
"quoteAudit": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"token": "18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498",
"bid": 0.003,
"ask": 0.004,
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"depth": 1444127.12,
"sourceTime": "2026-10-20T05:43:17.383Z",
"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.811Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"token": "41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839",
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"checkedAt": "2026-10-20T05:43:24.840Z",
"lastTradeUsed": false
}
],
"comparison": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "No stored matching-contract observation established; no probability change inferred."
},
"assessment": "Exact October27–28FOMC target upper-bound change contract; not today’s index direction or a stock trade success probability. Individual outcomes are not added together. No allocation or regime effect assumed.",
"readerRelevant": false,
"qualityReview": [
{
"outcome": "Yes",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 7.428,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
},
{
"outcome": "No",
"status": "observed_current_book",
"sourceAgeSeconds": 7.457,
"limitation": "One observed order-book snapshot; no guarantee of execution or event outcome."
}
]
}
],
"featuredEarningsCoverage": {
"symbols": [
"SMR.US",
"NOK.US",
"ADI.US",
"ROST.US",
"SOUN.US"
],
"status": "No suitable exact unresolved featured-issuer earnings contract established in bounded name searches. Unrelated issuer/name collisions excluded; first pages are not exhaustive."
},
"alexHandoff": {
"sourceFile": "work/polymarket-2026-10-20.json",
"priceCutoff": "2026-10-19T20:00:00Z",
"technicalIndependence": "Current9Alexcharts and their trigger/confirmation/invalidation remain based on audited bars; prediction prices do not qualify waves, resolve subdivisions, alter scores or supply a missing trigger.",
"context": "SPX open/close books near50%and different horizons remain weak; exact FOMC holdings-risk context reviewed separately by Sam. No numerical improvement or outcome probability claimed."
}
}