WAVE WORKSHOP · WEEK IN REVIEW
Edition 2026-10-26 · Week 2026-10-19–2026-10-23 · Prices through 2026-10-23 US close
2026-10-23 · Final October survey · primary release
Michigan final October sentiment48.0 versusSeptember48.1; current conditions46.7 versus50.9. Year-ahead inflation expectations4.7% and long-run3.5%.
Interpretation: weak durable-goods buying conditions compete with modest improvement in expectations; no causal attribution to individual stock moves. Primary source
2026-10-21 · Company catalyst · dated issuer announcement
Cadence announced a Munich sovereign AI design platform with NVIDIA. OnCloud is available; additional compute capabilities remain planned.
Interpretation: the demand case still needs earnings and execution evidence; this is not quantified incremental revenue. Primary source
2026-10-20 · Company catalyst · dated issuer announcement
Micron announced funding for Indium Corporation processing and a long-term supply agreement, within its previously announced up-to$3bn US supply-chain plan.
Interpretation: domestic supply resilience competes with investment execution and memory-cycle risk; no short-term EPS increment asserted. Primary source
Bounded independently retrieved public primary sources for the completed week. Facts and interpretation separated; not exhaustive news or institutional-flow attribution. Prepared in late recovery October26; original delivery deadline was missed.
Sorted by the latest completed session. Both returns sit side by side; the smaller figures show the difference from SPY. SPY plus eleven sectors: 12/12 current.
Daily: 2026-10-22 → 2026-10-23 close. Five trading sessions (roughly one week): 2026-10-16 → 2026-10-23 close.
| Sector / ETF | Last session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Energy (XLE)Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | +2.60%+3.13 pp vs SPY | +1.60%+2.03 pp vs SPY |
| 2. Technology (XLK)Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund | +0.49%+1.01 pp vs SPY | -0.13%+0.30 pp vs SPY |
| 3. Real estate (XLRE)Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund | +0.12%+0.64 pp vs SPY | +0.97%+1.40 pp vs SPY |
| 4. Utilities (XLU)Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund | -0.72%-0.20 pp vs SPY | +0.83%+1.26 pp vs SPY |
| 5. Materials (XLB)Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund | -0.74%-0.21 pp vs SPY | +0.77%+1.20 pp vs SPY |
| 6. Health care (XLV)Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.11%-0.59 pp vs SPY | +1.45%+1.88 pp vs SPY |
| 7. Industrials (XLI)Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.27%-0.74 pp vs SPY | -1.87%-1.44 pp vs SPY |
| 8. Financials (XLF)Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.32%-0.80 pp vs SPY | +0.68%+1.11 pp vs SPY |
| 9. Consumer discretionary (XLY)Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.66%-1.14 pp vs SPY | +0.57%+1.00 pp vs SPY |
| 10. Communication services (XLC)Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.78%-1.26 pp vs SPY | -4.36%-3.93 pp vs SPY |
| 11. Consumer staples (XLP)Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.92%-1.40 pp vs SPY | +0.73%+1.16 pp vs SPY |
Five-session leader: Energy (XLE) +1.60%; weakest: Communication services (XLC) -4.36%.
Close-to-close changes on matching saved EODHD split/dividend-adjusted daily prices, not official index total returns. Positive returns need not beat SPY. Performance ranks are context, not trade signals.
Technology (XLK) · Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund: Bear flag (short), confirmed 2026-10-23: trigger $185.37, invalidation $189.11, measured target $170.88, reward/risk 2.11:1; volume unverified. Completed regular-session 4H close: 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z. MACD bearish; RSI 35.4. Not a model allocation.
The Friday chart shortlist and Travelers’ six-signal review remain in today’s daily brief. Earlier tracked names, original levels and dated research outcomes remain in the full audit. Research reference outcomes are separate from the simulated ledger results below.
2026-10-16T20:00:00Z → 2026-10-23T20:00:00Z. Opening equity $100,655.25 included existing holdings and cash; it was not an all-cash portfolio.
| Price date | Cash-inclusive equity | Session change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | $101,146.54 | $491.29 (+0.49%) |
| 2026-10-20 | $101,782.92 | $636.38 (+0.63%) |
| 2026-10-21 | $101,727.85 | -$55.07 (-0.05%) |
| 2026-10-22 | $102,574.33 | $846.48 (+0.83%) |
| 2026-10-23 | $102,027.80 | -$546.53 (-0.53%) |
| Price-return proxy | Weekly return | Model comparison |
|---|---|---|
| SPY · S&P500 | -0.45% | 1.81% ahead of SPY |
| QQQ · Nasdaq-100 | -0.78% | 2.14% ahead of QQQ |
Identical start/end session dates and separately retained audited nominal closing marks. Ahead/behind subtracts percentage returns; it is not a relative-return ratio or alpha. There are no invented starting marks.
1 simulated stop exits were recorded for the reviewed week. Cumulative realised P&L remains -$1,950.31; open P&L $3,978.10. Closed losses remain included. Original entries, quantities and stop-touch windows remain in the accounting audit.
Since the 2026-10-02 cash launch, through 2026-10-23 US close; ETF comparisons use the frozen 2026-10-01 closing baseline. Simulation · zero model fees · price-only basis.
| Same-period comparison | Return | Model comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Model portfolioCash-inclusive change $2,027.80 | +2.03% | — |
| SPY · S&P 500 price proxy | -0.54% | 2.57% ahead of SPY |
| QQQ · Nasdaq-100 price proxy | -5.07% | 7.10% ahead of QQQ |
Ahead/behind compares the displayed percentage returns by subtraction; it is not a relative-return ratio or risk-adjusted alpha.
No new completed US session since the prior report; valuation remains at 2026-10-23 close.
| Holding | Open P&L | Stop / target |
|---|---|---|
| Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)Utilitieslong · 43.1406 shares · cost $115.90 · close $124.96 | $390.85 | $118.86 $127.26Updated 2026-10-22T13:30:00Z |
| Accenture plc (ACN)Technologylong · 50.5740 shares · cost $197.73 · close $249.42 · Target observed; separate exit convention required | $2,614.17 | $216.27 $219.03Updated 2026-10-19T13:30:00Z |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)Consumer Cyclicallong · 30.7920 shares · cost $324.76 · close $349.66 · Target observed; separate exit convention required | $766.72 | $341.94 $342.99Updated 2026-10-22T13:30:00Z |
| American Tower Corp (AMT)Real Estatelong · 27.5512 shares · cost $181.48 · close $188.97 | $206.36 | $176.42 $199.61 |
| Position | Exit date / price | Realised P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)Technology | 2026-10-09 $342.00 | -$459.37 |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)Technology | 2026-10-12 $596.07 | -$302.04 |
| NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)Technology | 2026-10-12 $227.02 | -$448.09 |
| Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC)Industrials | 2026-10-14 $201.95 | -$402.70 |
| Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)Energy | 2026-10-15 $278.16 | -$230.45 |
| Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)Consumer Cyclical | 2026-10-22 $248.60 | -$107.65 |
Closed positions leave open exposure and running P&L; their realised losses remain in cash and performance. Approved model stops use the stop price on audited touch, or first audited opening price on an adverse gap. A touch proves a candle window, not an exact instant or broker execution. Targets and discretionary exits retain separate execution conventions.
Long exposure $33,978.10; short exposure $0.00; net exposure $33,978.10; cash $68,049.69 includes any restricted short proceeds and is not buying power.
Price performance only; no dividends or cash interest. Recorded transaction and borrow charges deducted; pending borrow charges must be reconciled. Before taxes. Benchmark ETF proxies, not official index total returns. Insufficient history; excess return is not risk-adjusted alpha. One unit = $5,000.00; maximum 3 units and 15% per name at entry; combined shorts capped at 30%. Gaps may exceed planned stop risk. Dated level revisions take effect prospectively, with original levels retained.
No new simulated entries selected after 301 stock decisions and the index, metals and cash comparison. Cash $68,049.69. Existing prospective stop updates remain governed by their recorded effective times; Friday valuations do not apply Monday’s stops retrospectively. Full current Sam decisions.
Historical model valuations reflect Jean-Marc’s15October-approved stop-accounting correction; actual recording times, original snapshots and source vintages remain preserved. No real broker fills are claimed. Model and benchmark returns are price-only with zero model fees; dividends, cash interest and taxes are not modelled. SPY/QQQ are tradable price-return proxies, not official total-return indices. No numerical alpha, forecast accuracy or causal macro attribution is established.