WAVE WORKSHOP · WEEK IN REVIEW
Edition 2026-10-19 · Week 2026-10-12–2026-10-16 · Prices through 2026-10-16 US close
2026-10-14 · Released September CPI · historical weekly fact
September headline CPI rose 0.6% month on month seasonally adjusted and 3.7% year on year unadjusted. Core CPI rose 0.3% month on month and 2.6% year on year. Gasoline accounted for over half of the monthly headline increase.
Interpretation: renewed headline cost pressure competes with the disinflation case; energy concentration cautions against treating all prices as accelerating equally. No matched survey surprise or subsequent rate response is asserted. Primary source
2026-10-15 · Released September PPI · historical weekly fact
Final-demand PPI rose 1.3% month on month seasonally adjusted and 6.3% year on year unadjusted. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the monthly rise was0.5%.
Interpretation: input-cost and margin sensitivity remain relevant, particularly where pricing power is weak. PPI is not a mechanical forecast for CPI or company earnings; no consensus beat/miss inferred. Primary source
2026-10-16 · Released September G.17 · preliminary
Industrial production rose 0.7% month on month after revised August +0.1%. Manufacturing rose 0.3%; utilities rose 3.5%. Capacity utilization reached 76.9%, still 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.
Interpretation: growth evidence is supportive, but the utilities contribution and below-average utilization temper a broad manufacturing-boom reading. No automatic sector or stock entry follows. Primary source
Three primary releases published during the reviewed week, read in full at October 19 research cutoff. Actuals are historical weekly context, not pre-release expectations or evidence of a consensus surprise. Price reaction and sector leadership must come from independently audited histories; no causal market move inferred from these releases alone.
Sorted by the latest completed session. Both returns sit side by side; the smaller figures show the difference from SPY. SPY plus eleven sectors: 12/12 current.
Daily: 2026-10-15 → 2026-10-16 close. Five trading sessions (roughly one week): 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16 close.
| Sector / ETF | Last session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Energy (XLE)Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | +2.52%+3.63 pp vs SPY | +4.86%+6.82 pp vs SPY |
| 2. Utilities (XLU)Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund | +1.34%+2.45 pp vs SPY | +1.93%+3.90 pp vs SPY |
| 3. Consumer staples (XLP)Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | +1.08%+2.19 pp vs SPY | +5.02%+6.99 pp vs SPY |
| 4. Materials (XLB)Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund | +0.71%+1.82 pp vs SPY | +3.01%+4.98 pp vs SPY |
| 5. Financials (XLF)Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund | +0.45%+1.56 pp vs SPY | +1.44%+3.41 pp vs SPY |
| 6. Real estate (XLRE)Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund | +0.40%+1.51 pp vs SPY | +1.32%+3.29 pp vs SPY |
| 7. Industrials (XLI)Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund | -0.08%+1.03 pp vs SPY | -0.88%+1.09 pp vs SPY |
| 8. Health care (XLV)Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund | -0.27%+0.84 pp vs SPY | +3.45%+5.42 pp vs SPY |
| 9. Consumer discretionary (XLY)Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund | -0.84%+0.27 pp vs SPY | -0.35%+1.62 pp vs SPY |
| 10. Communication services (XLC)Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund | -1.89%-0.78 pp vs SPY | -0.05%+1.91 pp vs SPY |
| 11. Technology (XLK)Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund | -3.02%-1.92 pp vs SPY | -7.70%-5.73 pp vs SPY |
Five-session leader: Consumer staples (XLP) +5.02%; weakest: Technology (XLK) -7.70%.
Close-to-close changes on matching saved EODHD split/dividend-adjusted daily prices, not official index total returns. Positive returns need not beat SPY. Performance ranks are context, not trade signals.
No interesting ETF technical setup found under the existing completed-4H qualification rules.
The Friday chart shortlist and Travelers’ six-signal review remain in today’s daily brief. Earlier tracked names, original levels and dated research outcomes remain in the full audit. Research reference outcomes are separate from the simulated ledger results below.
2026-10-09T20:00:00Z → 2026-10-16T20:00:00Z. Opening equity $99,923.07 included existing holdings and cash; it was not an all-cash portfolio.
| Price date | Cash-inclusive equity | Session change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | $99,898.79 | -$24.27 (-0.02%) |
| 2026-10-13 | $99,805.21 | -$93.58 (-0.09%) |
| 2026-10-14 | $99,526.07 | -$279.14 (-0.28%) |
| 2026-10-15 | $100,234.56 | $708.48 (+0.71%) |
| 2026-10-16 | $100,655.25 | $420.70 (+0.42%) |
| Price-return proxy | Weekly return | Model comparison |
|---|---|---|
| SPY · S&P500 | -1.95% | 2.69% ahead of SPY |
| QQQ · Nasdaq-100 | -5.50% | 6.23% ahead of QQQ |
Identical start/end session dates and separately retained audited nominal closing marks. Ahead/behind subtracts percentage returns; it is not a relative-return ratio or alpha. There are no invented starting marks.
4 simulated stop exits were recorded for the reviewed week. Cumulative realised P&L remains -$1,842.66; open P&L $2,497.91. Closed losses remain included. Original entries, quantities and stop-touch windows remain in the accounting audit.
Since the 2026-10-02 cash launch, through 2026-10-16 US close; ETF comparisons use the frozen 2026-10-01 closing baseline. Simulation · zero model fees · price-only basis.
| Same-period comparison | Return | Model comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Model portfolioCash-inclusive change $655.25 | +0.66% | — |
| SPY · S&P 500 price proxy | -0.09% | 0.75% ahead of SPY |
| QQQ · Nasdaq-100 price proxy | -4.33% | 4.98% ahead of QQQ |
Ahead/behind compares the displayed percentage returns by subtraction; it is not a relative-return ratio or risk-adjusted alpha.
No new completed US session since the prior report; valuation remains at 2026-10-16 close.
| Holding | Open P&L | Stop / target |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)Consumer Cyclicallong · 19.6796 shares · cost $254.07 · close $249.94 | -$81.28 | $244.73 $320.68 |
| Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)Utilitieslong · 43.1406 shares · cost $115.90 · close $121.46 | $239.86 | $113.29 $127.26 |
| Accenture plc (ACN)Technologylong · 50.5740 shares · cost $197.73 · close $229.60 · Target observed; separate exit convention required | $1,611.79 | $192.58 $219.03 |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)Consumer Cyclicallong · 30.7920 shares · cost $324.76 · close $345.05 · Target observed; separate exit convention required | $624.77 | $318.95 $342.99Updated 2026-10-12T13:30:00Z |
| American Tower Corp (AMT)Real Estatelong · 27.5512 shares · cost $181.48 · close $185.21 | $102.77 | $176.42 $199.61 |
| Position | Exit date / price | Realised P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)Technology | 2026-10-09 $342.00 | -$459.37 |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)Technology | 2026-10-12 $596.07 | -$302.04 |
| NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)Technology | 2026-10-12 $227.02 | -$448.09 |
| Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC)Industrials | 2026-10-14 $201.95 | -$402.70 |
| Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)Energy | 2026-10-15 $278.16 | -$230.45 |
Closed positions leave open exposure and running P&L; their realised losses remain in cash and performance. Approved model stops use the stop price on audited touch, or first audited opening price on an adverse gap. A touch proves a candle window, not an exact instant or broker execution. Targets and discretionary exits retain separate execution conventions.
Long exposure $37,497.91; short exposure $0.00; net exposure $37,497.91; cash $63,157.34 includes any restricted short proceeds and is not buying power.
Price performance only; no dividends or cash interest. Recorded transaction and borrow charges deducted; pending borrow charges must be reconciled. Before taxes. Benchmark ETF proxies, not official index total returns. Insufficient history; excess return is not risk-adjusted alpha. One unit = $5,000.00; maximum 3 units and 15% per name at entry; combined shorts capped at 30%. Gaps may exceed planned stop risk. Dated level revisions take effect prospectively, with original levels retained.
No new simulated entries selected after 22 stock decisions and the index, metals and cash comparison. Cash $63,157.34. Existing prospective stop updates remain governed by their recorded effective times; Friday valuations do not apply Monday’s stops retrospectively. Full current Sam decisions.
Historical model valuations reflect Jean-Marc’s15October-approved stop-accounting correction; actual recording times, original snapshots and source vintages remain preserved. No real broker fills are claimed. Model and benchmark returns are price-only with zero model fees; dividends, cash interest and taxes are not modelled. SPY/QQQ are tradable price-return proxies, not official total-return indices. No numerical alpha, forecast accuracy or causal macro attribution is established.