WAVE WORKSHOP · DAILY 4H

Your trading brief

2 October 2026 · Prices through the 1 October US close

Today’s key events · UK time

13:30 BST
U.S. Employment Situation — September

Payrolls, unemployment and wages can move yields and equities. Scheduled release; figures are not yet available.

15:00 BST
U.S. factory orders

Manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders provide a further activity check after the jobs release.

No scheduled FOMC decision today; next meeting 27–28 October. Earnings coverage is incomplete: no confirmed material US release time identified in the sources checked, not a claim of no earnings. Selected scheduled highlights for 2026-10-02; check linked calendars for revisions.

Today’s setup watchlist

5 price setups to examine, with the case for each and the risks beside it. Setup validity and model-portfolio allocation are separate decisions. Maya’s news and social-attention sections follow the charts.

Alex’s setups — the case and the caution

MU Micron Technology Inc ↑Technology · Semiconductors

ON WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $1097.68

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($1001.54) and above its 200-bar average ($951.89).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move below $1022.90 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 37 completed bars ago. Momentum is bullish and falling (40.00). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

86098011011221Target $1193.66Breakout $1077.85Stop $1022.90RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars17 Aug1 Oct
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$1077.85Stop reference$1022.90Target reference$1193.66Reward / risk at close1.3 : 1

Sam: on watch — portfolio entry review. Setup remains on watch; current reward/risk is below Sam’s 1.5:1 portfolio entry preference — consider a better entry. MACD runs against this setup. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Elliott-wave scenario · 4H

Leading count · 4H01208-24 → 10-01 · Close $1097.68
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Provisional.

Leading reading: Bullish contracting diagonal · developing · Wave 3. No usable projected target supplied for this reading. Wave trigger $1042.40; count invalidation $887.60. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Alternative count · 4H0123? · $1153.0608-24 → 10-01 · Close $1097.68
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Competing reading: Bullish expanding diagonal · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $1153.06 (5.0% from the reported close). Wave trigger $1042.40; count invalidation $887.60. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Wave projections and classical-pattern targets are separate scenarios, not interchangeable take-profit orders. The interactive chart may use newer candles or different session grouping.

Maya · Wall Street view

Reported rating changes: last 7 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades; last 30 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades. Partial coverage: counts are only the events found, not market-wide totals.

Covered analyst consensus: 40 Buy / 5 Hold / 0 Sell (45 ratings), as of 2026-10-02. MarketBeat covered-rating snapshot; Strong Buy grouped with Buy. This is a snapshot of covered ratings, not a count of recent upgrades. Source.

  • 2026-10-01 · Mizuho: target raise · target USD 1300 → 1400. Source
  • 2026-10-01 · DA Davidson: target raise · target USD 2000 → 2100. Source
  • 2026-10-01 · Rosenblatt Securities: target raise · target USD 1500 → 1900. Source

Target changes in 30 days: 4 raises / 0 cuts (separate from rating changes). Selected publicly visible, dated brokerage actions from MarketBeat; original notes and exhaustive 30-day coverage are unavailable. Counts are found events only. Quantitative Zacks/Weiss grades are excluded from broker-action counts. Checked 2026-10-02T05:41:05.703Z. Analyst opinion is context, not a trade trigger.

AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc ↑Technology · Semiconductors

ON WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $615.64

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($538.78) and above its 200-bar average ($508.57).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $596.07 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 41 completed bars ago. Momentum is bullish and falling (21.83). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

416523630738Target $713.08Breakout $613.87Stop $596.07RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars17 Aug1 Oct
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$613.87Stop reference$596.07Target reference$713.08Reward / risk at close5.0 : 1

Sam: on watch — portfolio entry review. Breakout volume unconfirmed. MACD runs against this setup. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Elliott-wave scenario · 4H

Leading count · 4H012345? · $652.9109-03 → 10-01 · Close $615.64
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Leading reading: Bullish impulse · developing · Wave 5. Potential Wave 5 target $652.91 (6.1% from the reported close). Wave trigger $638.95; count invalidation $526.79. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Alternative count · 4H0123? · $815.2809-14 → 10-01 · Close $615.64
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Competing reading: Bullish impulse · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $815.28 (32.4% from the reported close). Wave trigger $638.95; count invalidation $480.33. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Wave projections and classical-pattern targets are separate scenarios, not interchangeable take-profit orders. The interactive chart may use newer candles or different session grouping.

Maya · Wall Street view

Reported rating changes: last 7 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades; last 30 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades. Partial coverage: counts are only the events found, not market-wide totals.

Covered analyst consensus: 36 Buy / 10 Hold / 1 Sell (47 ratings), as of 2026-10-02. MarketBeat covered-rating snapshot; Strong Buy grouped with Buy. This is a snapshot of covered ratings, not a count of recent upgrades. Source.

  • 2026-09-29 · Rosenblatt Securities: reiteration. Source
  • 2026-09-25 · Bank of America: target raise · target USD 620 → 720. Source
  • 2026-09-15 · Piper Sandler: initiation. Source

Target changes in 30 days: 1 raises / 0 cuts (separate from rating changes). Selected publicly visible, dated brokerage actions from MarketBeat; original notes and exhaustive 30-day coverage are unavailable. Counts are found events only. Quantitative Zacks/Weiss grades are excluded from broker-action counts. Checked 2026-10-02T05:41:05.703Z. Analyst opinion is context, not a trade trigger.

MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd ↑Technology · Semiconductors

ON WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $268.01

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($237.92) and above its 200-bar average ($231.93).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $248.14 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; no release observed in the available calculation window. Momentum is bullish and falling (11.89). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

192231270309Target $300.32Breakout $264.86Stop $248.14RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars17 Aug1 Oct
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$264.86Stop reference$248.14Target reference$300.32Reward / risk at close1.6 : 1

Sam: on watch — portfolio entry review. Breakout volume unconfirmed. MACD runs against this setup. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Elliott-wave scenario · 4H

Leading count · 4H0123? · $322.5709-14 → 10-01 · Close $268.01
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Leading reading: Bullish impulse · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $322.57 (20.4% from the reported close). Wave trigger $267.48; count invalidation $213.63. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Alternative count · 4H0ABC09-22 → 10-01 · Close $268.01
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Provisional.

Competing reading: Bearish expanded-flat. No usable projected target supplied for this reading. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Wave projections and classical-pattern targets are separate scenarios, not interchangeable take-profit orders. The interactive chart may use newer candles or different session grouping.

Maya · Wall Street view

Reported rating changes: last 7 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades; last 30 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades. Partial coverage: counts are only the events found, not market-wide totals.

Covered analyst consensus: 32 Buy / 7 Hold / 0 Sell (39 ratings), as of 2026-10-02. MarketBeat covered-rating snapshot; Strong Buy grouped with Buy. This is a snapshot of covered ratings, not a count of recent upgrades. Source.

  • 2026-09-28 · RBC Capital Markets: reiteration. Source
  • 2026-09-28 · Cantor Fitzgerald: reiteration. Source
  • 2026-09-21 · Morgan Stanley: target raise · target USD 246 → 268. Source

Target changes in 30 days: 1 raises / 0 cuts (separate from rating changes). Selected publicly visible, dated brokerage actions from MarketBeat; original notes and exhaustive 30-day coverage are unavailable. Counts are found events only. Quantitative Zacks/Weiss grades are excluded from broker-action counts. Checked 2026-10-02T05:41:05.703Z. Analyst opinion is context, not a trade trigger.

BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc ↓Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

ON WATCH

Head & shoulders · Bearish price pattern · Last close $500.91

Why bearish: The head & shoulders has broken downward on a completed candle, favouring a possible continuation lower. The closing price is below its 50-bar average ($506.66) and above its 200-bar average ($497.85).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move above $511.28 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 26 completed bars ago. Momentum is bearish and rising (-7.43). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

475493510528Stop $511.28Breakout $501.84Target $479.26RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars17 Aug1 Oct
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$501.84Stop reference$511.28Target reference$479.26Reward / risk at close2.1 : 1

Sam: on watch — portfolio entry review. Breakout volume unconfirmed. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking. Short availability and borrowing costs unverified.

Elliott-wave scenario · 4H

Leading count · 4H0123? · $490.6808-10 → 10-01 · Close $500.91
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Leading reading: Bearish contracting diagonal · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $490.68 (-2.0% from the reported close). Wave trigger $495.68; count invalidation $537.74. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Alternative count · 4H0123? · $455.6908-10 → 10-01 · Close $500.91
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Competing reading: Bearish expanding diagonal · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $455.69 (-9.0% from the reported close). Wave trigger $495.68; count invalidation $537.74. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Wave projections and classical-pattern targets are separate scenarios, not interchangeable take-profit orders. The interactive chart may use newer candles or different session grouping.

Maya · Wall Street view

Reported rating changes: last 7 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades; last 30 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades. Partial coverage: counts are only the events found, not market-wide totals.

Current Buy/Hold/Sell consensus: unavailable.

Target changes in 30 days: 0 raises / 0 cuts (separate from rating changes). Selected publicly visible, dated brokerage actions from MarketBeat; original notes and exhaustive 30-day coverage are unavailable. Counts are found events only. Quantitative Zacks/Weiss grades are excluded from broker-action counts. Checked 2026-10-02T05:41:05.703Z. Analyst opinion is context, not a trade trigger.

STX Seagate Technology PLC ↑Technology · Computer Hardware

ON WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $945.57

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($859.38) and above its 200-bar average ($869.89).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $870.38 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 35 completed bars ago. Momentum is bullish and falling (61.16). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

7318509691088Target $1060.40Breakout $931.07Stop $870.38RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars17 Aug1 Oct
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$931.07Stop reference$870.38Target reference$1060.40Reward / risk at close1.5 : 1

Sam: on watch — portfolio entry review. Breakout volume unconfirmed. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Elliott-wave scenario · 4H

Leading count · 4H0123? · $1117.0009-15 → 10-01 · Close $945.57
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Leading reading: Bullish impulse · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $1117.00 (18.1% from the reported close). Wave trigger $936.19; count invalidation $757.74. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Alternative count · 4H0123? · $980.6609-15 → 10-01 · Close $945.57
Grey: price closes. Colour: proposed count. Dashed: target scenario; timing is illustrative. Provisional.

Competing reading: Bullish contracting diagonal · developing · Wave 3. Potential Wave 3 target $980.66 (3.7% from the reported close). Wave trigger $936.19; count invalidation $757.74. Provisional: parent-degree/subdivision or other method checks remain unresolved; not a confirmed wave count.

Wave projections and classical-pattern targets are separate scenarios, not interchangeable take-profit orders. The interactive chart may use newer candles or different session grouping.

Maya · Wall Street view

Reported rating changes: last 7 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades; last 30 days — 0 upgrades / 0 downgrades. Partial coverage: counts are only the events found, not market-wide totals.

Covered analyst consensus: 22 Buy / 5 Hold / 0 Sell (27 ratings), as of 2026-10-02. MarketBeat covered-rating snapshot; Strong Buy grouped with Buy. This is a snapshot of covered ratings, not a count of recent upgrades. Source.

Target changes in 30 days: 0 raises / 0 cuts (separate from rating changes). Selected publicly visible, dated brokerage actions from MarketBeat; original notes and exhaustive 30-day coverage are unavailable. Counts are found events only. Quantitative Zacks/Weiss grades are excluded from broker-action counts. Checked 2026-10-02T05:41:05.703Z. Analyst opinion is context, not a trade trigger.

Pattern targets are conditional measurements. Elliott alternatives remain unqualified; full analysis is linked below. Sam’s rules-based checklist is not an independent AI approval. Gaps can exceed stops.

TTM Squeeze settings and interpretation

20-bar Bollinger bands (2 population standard deviations); original Keltner: SMA20 typical price ± 1.5 × SMA20 high-low range; 20-bar regression momentum. Latest completed 4H candles only; a fresh trigger requires a release on the latest candle with positive/rising or negative/falling momentum. Other platforms may use different Keltner settings. Method reference.

AI names on our radar

AAON — AAON IncIndustrials · Building Products & EquipmentBull flag; MACD bearish, RSI 51.Watch; no cleared entry
CRDO — Credo Technology Group Holding LtdTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag; MACD bullish, RSI 64.Watch; no cleared entry
NVT — nVent Electric PLCIndustrials · Electrical Equipment & PartsSymmetrical triangle; MACD bullish, RSI 63.Watch; no cleared entry
LITE — Lumentum Holdings IncTechnology · Communication EquipmentSymmetrical triangle; MACD bullish, RSI 67.Watch; no cleared entry

Maya’s company & AI news

Micron’s results support the AI memory theme

Technology · Semiconductors

2026-09-30 · Reported results

Fiscal Q4 sales reached $54.23bn. Management’s next-quarter revenue guidance is $61.5bn ± $1.5bn. Interpretation: demand remains supportive, but a strong business release does not remove the chart’s momentum warning or justify chasing a gap. Source →

AMD adds AI model expertise

Technology · Semiconductors

2026-09-28 · Announced transaction

The proposed World Labs acquisition is valued at roughly $8.2bn in stock and is expected to close by year-end, subject to approvals. Interpretation: strategically relevant to future AI computing; the near-term trade still depends on breakout support holding, with integration and dilution risks. Source →

U.S. jobs report is today’s main timing risk

2026-10-02 · Scheduled · not yet released

September Employment Situation is scheduled for 13:30 UK today. Interpretation: payrolls, unemployment and wages can change yield expectations and reverse early index or technology-stock moves. No result is assumed. Source →

Names attracting social attention

Largest increases in reported Reddit ticker mentions among our stock universe. These are research leads, not buy signals.

CompanyLatest 24hPrevious 24hMultipleHow to read it
GOOGL — Alphabet Inc Class ACommunication Services · Internet Content & Information91491.9×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
GOOG — Alphabet Inc Class CCommunication Services · Internet Content & Information101661.5×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
ACN — Accenture plcTechnology · Information Technology Services3448.5×Small starting base
MSFT — Microsoft CorporationTechnology · Software - Infrastructure48202.4×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
NFLX — Netflix IncCommunication Services · Entertainment2983.6×Small starting base
AVGO — Broadcom IncTechnology · Semiconductors33142.4×Small starting base
ON — ON Semiconductor CorporationTechnology · Semiconductors2263.7×Ticker can match ordinary words
RKLB — Rocket Lab USA Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defense35241.5×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified

ApeWisdom source · Retrieved 2026-10-02T05:38:54.111Z. Counts are mentions, not people; the provider’s exact measurement-window end is unavailable. Coverage is Reddit-focused, not all social media. Alphabet share classes are separate ticker counts.

Our $100,000 model portfolio

Started 2026-10-02 with cash; new confirmed trades only. One unit = $5,000; maximum three units and 15% of equity per position at entry; combined shorts capped at 30% of equity.

Portfolio value$100,000.00Cash including restricted short proceeds$100,000.00Since inception$0.00 (+0.00%)Since prior reportBaseline / no comparison

Long exposure: $0.00. Short exposure: $-0.00. Net exposure: $0.00.

Realized P&L: $0.00. Unrealized P&L: $0.00. Prices through 2026-10-01T20:00:00Z.

HoldingSharesAverage costCloseP&LStop / targetStatus
No trades entered. $100,000 cash.
Benchmark proxySince inceptionPortfolio outperformance (percentage points)
S&P 500 · SPY+0.00%0.00
Nasdaq-100 · QQQ+0.00%0.00

Price performance only; no dividends or cash interest. Recorded transaction and borrow charges deducted; pending borrow charges must be reconciled. Before taxes. Benchmark ETF proxies, not official index total returns. Insufficient history; excess return is not risk-adjusted alpha. Stop/target flags are closing-price observations, not fills. Gaps may exceed stops. The existing CDNS trade is excluded.

Setup performance & follow-up

Prior-report names only, one row per stock. Today’s new setups enter this recap after their first subsequent completed trading session. A revised pattern never restarts performance. Green means the price moved in the setup’s direction; red means it moved against it.

Company / setupFirst highlighted
Reference price
Latest close
Price date
Price change
Since prior report
Since first highlight
Direction-adjusted
Original stop
Original target
Status
ALL — The Allstate CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & CasualtyBear flag · Bearish ↓2026-09-30
$225.43
$224.47
2026-10-01
+1.19%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+0.43%$230.79
$199.68
Watching
2026-10-01: Updated stop reference $229.90; Updated target reference $199.75. Original tracking baseline retained.
FORM — FormFactor IncTechnology · Semiconductor Equipment & MaterialsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$136.20
$148.39
2026-10-01
-0.66%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+8.95%$124.10
$154.35
Watching
MRVL — Marvell Technology Group LtdTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$263.28
$268.01
2026-10-01
+1.44%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+1.80%$248.14
$296.69
Watching
2026-10-02: Updated target reference $300.32. Original tracking baseline retained.
RMBS — Rambus IncTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$103.11
$107.23
2026-10-01
+0.43%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+4.00%$99.34
$119.38
Watching
2026-10-01: Updated target reference $121.70. Original tracking baseline retained.
ENS — EnersysIndustrials · Electrical Equipment & PartsAscending triangle · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$182.19
$189.60
2026-10-01
+3.29%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+4.07%$174.21
$194.23
Watching
CDNS — Cadence Design Systems IncTechnology · Software - ApplicationBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-10-01
$330.18
$350.71
2026-10-01
+6.22%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+6.22%$314.00
$371.11
Watching
CEVA — CEVA IncTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-10-01
$35.35
$35.46
2026-10-01
+0.31%
vs 2026-10-01 report
+0.31%$33.92
$40.17
Watching

Reference prices are the completed closes shown in the first report, not entry fills. Cumulative move reverses the price-change sign for bearish setups. New ideas have no prior-report comparison; weekends and gaps can make the interval longer than one session. Original stop and target levels stay fixed for tracking. Updated references are shown separately and do not rewrite prior outcomes. Flags use report-snapshot closes only: intraday touches and their order are unverified. A recorded stop/target remains highlighted; subsequent price moves continue to be shown, not treated as returns after an exit. No trades, fills, fees or trading P&L are assumed.