WAVE WORKSHOP · DAILY 4H

Your trading brief

1 October 2026 · Prices through the 30 September US close

Today’s key events · UK time

11:00 BST
Acuity fiscal Q4 and full-year results

Results scheduled for 11:00 UK; conference call at 13:00 UK. Watch building and infrastructure demand commentary.

13:30 BST
U.S. initial jobless claims

A labour-market update that can move yields and rate expectations; the figures are not yet released.

15:00 BST
ISM Manufacturing and construction spending

Scheduled activity releases may affect cyclical stocks and the broader market. Watch new orders and prices in the ISM report.

18:30 BST
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: economy and monetary policy

Scheduled remarks may affect rate expectations. This is a speech, not an FOMC rate decision.

21:15 BST
NIKE fiscal Q1 results

Results release at 21:15 UK; earnings call at 22:00 UK. Consumer-demand and margin guidance are the focus.

No scheduled FOMC decision today; the next meeting is 27–28 October. Additional Fed speakers appear on the official calendar. Selected scheduled highlights for 2026-10-01; check linked calendars for revisions.

Today: watch and wait

5 price setups to examine, with the case for each and the risks beside it. None is a cleared trade yet. Maya’s news and social-attention sections follow the charts.

Alex’s setups — the case and the caution

CDNS Cadence Design Systems Inc ↑Technology · Software - Application

WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $330.18

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($306.11) and below its 200-bar average ($346.16).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move below $314.00 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; no release observed in the available calculation window. Momentum is bullish and falling (32.39). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

264303341380Target $371.11Breakout $327.51Stop $314.00RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars14 Aug30 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$327.51Stop reference$314.00Target reference$371.11Reward / risk at close2.5 : 1

Sam: wait. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

RMBS Rambus Inc ↑Technology · Semiconductors

WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $106.77

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($91.20) and below its 200-bar average ($111.82).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move below $99.34 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 25 completed bars ago. Momentum is bullish and falling (10.89). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

7693109125Target $121.70Breakout $103.16Stop $99.34RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars14 Aug30 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$103.16Stop reference$99.34Target reference$121.70Reward / risk at close2.0 : 1

Sam: wait. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

ALL The Allstate Corporation ↓Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

WATCH

Bear flag · Bearish price pattern · Last close $221.83

Why bearish: Price fell, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke below that channel. This supports a possible continuation lower. The closing price is below its 50-bar average ($247.83) and below its 200-bar average ($240.57).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move above $229.90 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 33 completed bars ago. Momentum is bearish and rising (-17.53). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

194220246272Stop $229.90Breakout $224.65Target $199.75RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars14 Aug30 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$224.65Stop reference$229.90Target reference$199.75Reward / risk at close2.7 : 1

Sam: wait. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking. Short availability and borrowing costs unverified.

CEVA CEVA Inc ↑Technology · Semiconductors

WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $35.35

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($29.83) and below its 200-bar average ($36.95).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move below $33.92 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; no release observed in the available calculation window. Momentum is bullish and falling (3.30). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

24303642Target $40.17Breakout $34.39Stop $33.92RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars14 Aug30 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$34.39Stop reference$33.92Target reference$40.17Reward / risk at close3.4 : 1

Sam: wait. MACD runs against this setup. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd ↑Technology · Semiconductors

WATCH

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $264.21

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($236.90) and above its 200-bar average ($230.94).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $248.14 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; no release observed in the available calculation window. Momentum is bullish and falling (13.18). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

192230269307Target $298.14Breakout $262.68Stop $248.14RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars14 Aug30 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$262.68Stop reference$248.14Target reference$298.14Reward / risk at close2.1 : 1

Sam: wait. Breakout volume unconfirmed. MACD runs against this setup. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Pattern targets are conditional measurements. Elliott alternatives remain unqualified; full analysis is linked below. Sam’s rules-based checklist is not an independent AI approval. Gaps can exceed stops.

TTM Squeeze settings and interpretation

20-bar Bollinger bands (2 population standard deviations); original Keltner: SMA20 typical price ± 1.5 × SMA20 high-low range; 20-bar regression momentum. Latest completed 4H candles only; a fresh trigger requires a release on the latest candle with positive/rising or negative/falling momentum. Other platforms may use different Keltner settings. Method reference.

AI names on our radar

AAON — AAON IncIndustrials · Building Products & EquipmentBull flag; MACD bearish, RSI 53.Watch; no cleared entry
CRDO — Credo Technology Group Holding LtdTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag; MACD bullish, RSI 55.Watch; no cleared entry
NVT — nVent Electric PLCIndustrials · Electrical Equipment & PartsSymmetrical triangle; MACD bearish, RSI 53.Watch; no cleared entry
LITE — Lumentum Holdings IncTechnology · Communication EquipmentDouble bottom; MACD bullish, RSI 58.Watch; no cleared entry

Maya’s company & AI news

Micron results put AI memory demand in focus

Technology · Semiconductors

2026-09-30 · Reported results · AI supply chain

Micron reported record quarterly and full-year results, citing AI demand, and said it is increasing technology and manufacturing investment. Interpretation: a relevant read-through for memory and infrastructure suppliers, including Rambus, but not evidence of new orders for them. Today’s charts end at the 30 September regular-session close; subsequent price reactions need a fresh check. Source →

Nvidia adds substantial buyback capacity

Technology · Semiconductors

2026-09-28 · Earlier this week · capital return

Nvidia authorised another $150 billion of share repurchases, taking the remaining authorisation to $235 billion, with execution expected through fiscal 2028. Interpretation: supports the cash-generation narrative around AI, but an authorisation is not a completed purchase or a floor under the share price. Source →

NIKE earnings tonight: a consumer-demand checkpoint

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

2026-10-01 · Scheduled event · announcement dated 28 August

NIKE is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter results at 21:15 UK time, followed by its conference call at 22:00. Interpretation: guidance on demand and margins could influence consumer-sector sentiment. Results are not yet available; avoid treating the calendar entry as a positive or negative surprise. Source →

Names attracting social attention

Largest increases in reported Reddit ticker mentions among our stock universe. These are research leads, not buy signals.

CompanyLatest 24hPrevious 24hMultipleHow to read it
MU — Micron Technology IncTechnology · Semiconductors12282904.2×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
APP — Applovin CorpCommunication Services · Advertising Agencies24124.0×Small starting base
HOOD — Robinhood Markets IncFinancial Services · Capital Markets42212.0×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
TSLA — Tesla IncConsumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers78581.3×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
GOOG — Alphabet Inc Class CCommunication Services · Internet Content & Information67491.4×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
INTC — Intel CorporationTechnology · Semiconductors32162.0×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
SNDK — Sandisk CorpTechnology · Computer Hardware48401.2×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
MCD — McDonald’s CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants22161.4×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified

ApeWisdom source · Retrieved 2026-10-01T05:37:44.491Z. Counts are mentions, not people; the provider’s exact measurement-window end is unavailable. Coverage is Reddit-focused, not all social media. Alphabet share classes are separate ticker counts.

Setup performance & follow-up

One row per stock, tracked from its first highlighted price. A revised pattern never restarts performance. Green means the price moved in the setup’s direction; red means it moved against it.

Company / setupFirst highlighted
Reference price
Latest close
Price date
Price change
Since prior report
Since first highlight
Direction-adjusted
Original stop
Original target
Status
ALL — The Allstate CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & CasualtyBear flag · Bearish ↓2026-09-30
$225.43
$221.83
2026-09-30
-1.60%
vs 2026-09-30 report
+1.60%$230.79
$199.68
Watching
2026-10-01: Updated stop reference $229.90; Updated target reference $199.75. Original tracking baseline retained.
FORM — FormFactor IncTechnology · Semiconductor Equipment & MaterialsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$136.20
$149.37
2026-09-30
+9.67%
vs 2026-09-30 report
+9.67%$124.10
$154.35
Watching
MRVL — Marvell Technology Group LtdTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$263.28
$264.21
2026-09-30
+0.35%
vs 2026-09-30 report
+0.35%$248.14
$296.69
Watching
2026-10-01: Updated target reference $298.14. Original tracking baseline retained.
RMBS — Rambus IncTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$103.11
$106.77
2026-09-30
+3.55%
vs 2026-09-30 report
+3.55%$99.34
$119.38
Watching
2026-10-01: Updated target reference $121.70. Original tracking baseline retained.
ENS — EnersysIndustrials · Electrical Equipment & PartsAscending triangle · Bullish ↑2026-09-30
$182.19
$183.56
2026-09-30
+0.75%
vs 2026-09-30 report
+0.75%$174.21
$194.23
Watching
CDNS — Cadence Design Systems IncTechnology · Software - ApplicationBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-10-01
$330.18
$330.18
2026-09-30
—
No new comparison
New — awaiting next close$314.00
$371.11
Watching
CEVA — CEVA IncTechnology · SemiconductorsBull flag · Bullish ↑2026-10-01
$35.35
$35.35
2026-09-30
—
No new comparison
New — awaiting next close$33.92
$40.17
Watching

Reference prices are the completed closes shown in the first report, not entry fills. Cumulative move reverses the price-change sign for bearish setups. New ideas have no prior-report comparison; weekends and gaps can make the interval longer than one session. Original stop and target levels stay fixed for tracking. Updated references are shown separately and do not rewrite prior outcomes. Flags use report-snapshot closes only: intraday touches and their order are unverified. A recorded stop/target remains highlighted; subsequent price moves continue to be shown, not treated as returns after an exit. No trades, fills, fees or trading P&L are assumed.