WAVE WORKSHOP · DAILY 4H

Your trading brief

30 September 2026 · Prices through the 29 September US close

Today’s key events · UK time

13:15 BST
U.S. ADP employment

A jobs update ahead of the U.S. open; watch the rates response.

13:30 BST
U.S. PCE inflation & Q2 GDP — third estimate

Inflation and growth figures may move yields and equity valuations.

21:30 BST
Micron (MU) earnings call

Watch the AI memory outlook. Time shown is the conference call; the results-release time is not confirmed.

No scheduled FOMC decision today. Next scheduled meeting: 27–28 October. Selected scheduled highlights for 2026-09-30; check linked calendars for revisions.

Today: watch and wait

5 price setups to examine, with the case for each and the risks beside it. None is a cleared trade yet. Maya’s news and social-attention sections follow the charts.

Alex’s setups — the case and the caution

Bear flag · Bearish price pattern · Last close $225.43

Why bearish: Price fell, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke below that channel. This supports a possible continuation lower. The closing price is below its 50-bar average ($249.19) and below its 200-bar average ($240.47).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move above $230.79 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 31 completed bars ago. Momentum is bearish and rising (-18.56). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

194220246272Stop $230.79Breakout $226.90Target $199.68RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars13 Aug29 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$226.90Stop reference$230.79Target reference$199.68Reward / risk at close4.8 : 1

Sam: wait. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking. Short availability and borrowing costs unverified.

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $136.20

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($112.37) and above its 200-bar average ($121.10).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $124.10 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; no release observed in the available calculation window. Momentum is bullish and falling (16.79). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

86111135160Target $154.35Breakout $131.27Stop $124.10RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars13 Aug29 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$131.27Stop reference$124.10Target reference$154.35Reward / risk at close1.5 : 1

Sam: avoid for now. Less than 1.5 to 1 potential reward/risk. Breakout volume unconfirmed. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $263.28

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($236.04) and above its 200-bar average ($229.92).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $248.14 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; no release observed in the available calculation window. Momentum is bullish and falling (17.27). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

192230268305Target $296.69Breakout $261.23Stop $248.14RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars13 Aug29 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$261.23Stop reference$248.14Target reference$296.69Reward / risk at close2.2 : 1

Sam: wait. Breakout volume unconfirmed. MACD runs against this setup. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Bull flag · Bullish price pattern · Last close $103.11

Why bullish: Price rose, paused in a short counter-trend channel, then broke above that channel. This supports a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($90.57) and below its 200-bar average ($112.03).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume is still unconfirmed. A move below $99.34 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 23 completed bars ago. Momentum is bullish and falling (12.74). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

7692107123Target $119.38Breakout $101.06Stop $99.34RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars13 Aug29 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$101.06Stop reference$99.34Target reference$119.38Reward / risk at close4.3 : 1

Sam: wait. Breakout volume unconfirmed. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Ascending triangle · Bullish price pattern · Last close $182.19

Why bullish: The ascending triangle has broken upward on a completed candle, favouring a possible continuation higher. The closing price is above its 50-bar average ($179.85) and below its 200-bar average ($203.78).

What could go wrong: Breakout volume supports the move. A move below $174.21 would undermine this pattern.

TTM Squeeze · 4H: Squeeze is off; its last observed release was 23 completed bars ago. Momentum is bullish and rising (4.86). Momentum direction agrees with this setup. No fresh directional squeeze trigger.

165181196212Target $194.23Breakout $180.29Stop $174.21RSI (14)7030MACD (12, 26, 9)0MACDSignalTTM squeeze / momentum0Amber dots: compression · grey: off · last 20 bars13 Aug29 Sept
4H completed candles · EODHD · RSI 14 · MACD 12/26/9 · TTM 20. Dashed purple lines join matching price/indicator pivots; reference levels are not orders
Open interactive chart →
Breakout reference$180.29Stop reference$174.21Target reference$194.23Reward / risk at close1.5 : 1

Sam: wait. Earnings date, tradable spread and position size still need checking.

Pattern targets are conditional measurements. Elliott alternatives remain unqualified; full analysis is linked below. Sam’s rules-based checklist is not an independent AI approval. Gaps can exceed stops.

TTM Squeeze settings and interpretation

20-bar Bollinger bands (2 population standard deviations); original Keltner: SMA20 typical price ± 1.5 × SMA20 high-low range; 20-bar regression momentum. Latest completed 4H candles only; a fresh trigger requires a release on the latest candle with positive/rising or negative/falling momentum. Other platforms may use different Keltner settings. Method reference.

AI names on our radar

AAON — AAONBull flag; MACD bullish, RSI 61.Watch; no cleared entry
CRDO — Credo TechnologyBull flag; MACD bullish, RSI 54.Watch; no cleared entry
NVT — nVent ElectricSymmetrical triangle; MACD bearish, RSI 56.Watch; no cleared entry
LITE — LumentumDouble bottom; MACD bullish, RSI 59.Watch; no cleared entry

Maya’s company & AI news

MU — earnings are the next catalyst

2026-09-30 · Scheduled event today

Micron has scheduled its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call for 30 September. Watch guidance on memory demand and profitability for the AI supply chain. This is an event-risk watch, not a directional call; the results are not included in this morning snapshot. Source →

META — AI moves further into business software

2026-09-29 · Company announcement

Meta announced Muse for Small Business, adding connections to business tools and Facebook and Instagram accounts. Maya’s reading: this expands the AI monetisation opportunity, while increasing competitive pressure on business software providers. Adoption and paying usage matter more than the launch alone. Source →

AI sector — voluntary safety accord

2026-09-29 · Policy news · AP reporting

AP reports that major AI executives signed a voluntary accord covering internal and external reviews of AI systems. Maya’s reading: this may affect sector sentiment and expectations for oversight. It does not establish a revenue benefit or a buy signal for any signatory. Source →

MRVL — optical connectivity remains the theme

2026-09-21 · Background · not fresh news

Marvell announced 2nm optical technology demonstrations for AI data-centre connectivity at ECOC. Maya’s reading: this supports the longer-term connectivity theme, but it is older context and does not override today’s bearish momentum warning on the chart. Source →

Names attracting social attention

Largest increases in reported Reddit ticker mentions among our stock universe. These are research leads, not buy signals.

CompanyLatest 24hPrevious 24hMultipleHow to read it
MU — Micron Technology3011781.7×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
BE — Bloom Energy77292.7×Ticker can match ordinary words
GOOGL — Alphabet (Google)56134.3×Small starting base
NBIS — Nebius Group46123.8×Small starting base
RKLB — Rocket Lab USA42104.2×Small starting base
TSLA — Tesla57321.8×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
AAPL — Apple44202.2×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified
GOOG — Alphabet (Google)51301.7×Increased mentions; sentiment unverified

ApeWisdom source · Retrieved 2026-09-30T08:36:30.823Z. Counts are mentions, not people; the provider’s exact measurement-window end is unavailable. Coverage is Reddit-focused, not all social media. Alphabet share classes are separate ticker counts.

Follow-up

NameFirst listedLatest status
ALLAdded todayWatching — no entry recorded
FORMAdded todayWatching — no entry recorded
MRVLAdded todayWatching — no entry recorded
RMBSAdded todayWatching — no entry recorded
ENSAdded todayWatching — no entry recorded

Original levels stay fixed. Updates use completed closes; intrabar touches and fills are unverified. No open trade or trading P&L is recorded.